- USD/CAD trades with negative bias for the fourth successive day amid the prevalent USD selling bias.
- Worries that Trump’s tariffs might trigger a US recession lift Fed rate cut bets and weigh on the buck.
- The overnight downfall in Crude Oil prices undermines the Loonie and lends some support to the major.
- Traders also seem reluctant to place fresh directional bets ahead of the US/Canadian jobs reports.
The USD/CAD pair remains under some selling pressure for the fourth straight day on Friday and currently trades around the 1.4070 area, down 0.15% for the day. Spot prices hang near a four-month low touched on Thursday and seem poised to heavy weekly losses, though a combination of diverging factors warrants caution for bearish traders.
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight modest bounce from its lowest level since October amid concerns that US President Donald Trump's tariffs might trigger a recession and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle. This led to the overnight slump in US Treasury bond yields and kept the USD bulls on the defensive, which continues to exert downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
However, the risk of a further escalation of the US-Canada trade war might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the Canadian Dollar (CAD). In fact, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday that the previously announced retaliatory tariffs will remain in effect and that Canada will impose 25% tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA trade deal.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices consolidated Thursday's steep decline to a multi-week low amid worries that the widening trade war may dent global economic growth and dampen fuel demand. This could further undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and contribute to limiting the downside for the USD/CAD pair. Furthermore, traders might opt to wait for the US/Canadian jobs report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
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