US: War shock keeps prices elevated – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Philip Marey and Kan Ji argue that higher global Oil prices from the Iran conflict will push US inflation higher and keep it more persistent. They expect US CPI to rebound in March, peak at 3.3% in April, average 2.9% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, only easing to 2.5% in the second half of 2028. This reflects a stagflationary supply shock.

Peak at 3.3% then slow decline

"Although the US has become a net exporter of oil and natural gas, the US economy remains sensitive to global oil prices, because domestic fuel prices are closely related."

"Consequently, we expect inflation to rebound in March."

"Given Rabobank’s baseline scenario of a slow reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after fighting ends in the second half of April, and in line with our new energy price forecasts, we now expect inflation in the US to peak at 3.3% in April and then gradually fall to 2.5% in the second half of 2028."

"This means that inflation is more persistent than in our earlier forecasts, with 2.8% inflation in 2027, only slightly lower than the average of 2.9% for 2026."

"Our earlier simulations show that the upward impact on inflation and the downward impact on GDP growth could be substantially larger in case of even higher energy price trajectories."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)