US: Retail sales likely to surge 0.5% in May - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a 0.5% m-o-m increase in US control retail sales in May, consistent with firming momentum in Q2 personal spending.

Key Quotes

“Yet, some of the increase was likely driven by a pickup in gasoline sales at superstores and warehouse clubs, which may have been boosted by rising retail gasoline prices. As the Census Bureau does not separate gasoline sales at these stores, rising oil prices will likely affect control retail sales to some degree.”

“Receipts at gasoline stations, separate from other large-scale retail stores, will likely pick up for the same reason. In addition, light vehicle sales slowed in May, suggesting retail sales at auto and auto part dealerships will likely fall. Finally, we expect a rebound in sales at building material stores after weather-driven softness over the past two months.”