US Midterm Elections: Democrats score early wins, weighing on US Dollar
Americans voted in midterm elections on Tuesday, which will determine who controls Congress for the final two years of US President Donald Trump’s term.
According to live data from the Decision Desk HQ, election results have been called in 201 of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, with Democrats securing 124 seats and Republicans winning 77.
Democrats secured a major victory by capturing a Republican-held Senate seat in North Carolina while also showing surprising strength across several Republican-leaning House districts in Florida on Tuesday.
In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper comfortably defeated Republican candidate Michael Whatley, who was endorsed by Donald Trump, winning a Senate seat previously held by Republicans, according to media projections.
Meanwhile, Democrat Jon Ossoff has won the US Senate race in Georgia, securing a second term and fending off a challenge from Trump-backed Mike Collins. Georgia remains a key battleground for Democrats as they seek to regain control of the Senate.
"Given the Democrats are favoured right now, our expectation is that they will take control of both the House and the Senate," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. If that pans out, the US dollar could sell off further from here, because a Democratic sweep would limit government spending over Trump's term,” Carol added.
Market reaction
US Dollar Index (DXY) attracts some sellers ahead of US midterm election reseults. At the time of writing, the DXY is down 0.52% on the day at 101.32. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 2-year treasury yields dropped five basis points (bps) to 4.566%. Benchmark 10-year yields were down six bps to 4.90%.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.53% | -0.43% | -0.72% | -0.33% | -0.05% | 0.10% | -0.86% | |
| EUR | 0.53% | 0.11% | -0.20% | 0.19% | 0.47% | 0.63% | -0.31% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | -0.11% | -0.30% | 0.11% | 0.38% | 0.52% | -0.44% | |
| JPY | 0.72% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.68% | 0.82% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.40% | 0.27% | 0.42% | -0.54% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | -0.47% | -0.38% | -0.68% | -0.27% | 0.15% | -0.80% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.63% | -0.52% | -0.82% | -0.42% | -0.15% | -0.95% | |
| CHF | 0.86% | 0.31% | 0.44% | 0.14% | 0.54% | 0.80% | 0.95% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US midterm elections FAQs
The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.
They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.
No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.
Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.
US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.
Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
