US: Focus on jobless claims, import prices and business inventories data – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura point out that US initial jobless claims remained subdued in the week ending 2 December and while the transitory increase from recent hurricane activity has largely receded, substantial wildfire activity has the potential to increase initial jobless claims again during the month of December.

Key Quotes

“Continuing claims declined during the week ending 25 November (lagging initial claims reporting by one week). Altogether, subdued levels of initial claims are consistent with steady growth and strong incoming data.”

“Import prices: Import prices overall were relatively soft in October, with import prices declining for automotive vehicles, consumer goods, and foods, feeds, and beverages. Overall, the lagged effect of the weakening US dollar earlier this year did not have a large enough effect to materially push up imported consumer prices notably. That said, relevant components of October’s import prices report, including a strong jump in airline passenger fare prices, were positive for October’s core PCE inflation outlook.”

“Business inventories: In an advanced estimate, both wholesale and retail inventories declined in October by 0.4% and 0.1% m-o-m, respectively. Inventory investment in Q4 is likely to be somewhat soft after a notably strong Q3. That said, factory inventories increased steadily by 0.2% in October.”