US Dollar Index: Trades firmly near 100.35 ahead of Fed speeches

The US Dollar trades strongly at the start of the week.
The Fed is almost certain to deliver at least one more interest rate hike this year.
Investors await Fed speeches and the outcome of meeting between leaders from the US and Gulf nations.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The US Dollar (USD) reflects strength at the start of the week on prospects of further Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening this year. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.15% to near 100.37.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	0.12%	0.22%	0.22%	-0.04%	0.07%	0.13%
EUR	-0.03%		0.02%	0.13%	0.12%	-0.12%	-0.04%	0.05%
GBP	-0.12%	-0.02%		0.11%	0.10%	-0.13%	-0.08%	0.04%
JPY	-0.22%	-0.13%	-0.11%		0.00%	-0.28%	-0.13%	-0.04%
CAD	-0.22%	-0.12%	-0.10%	-0.01%		-0.29%	-0.16%	-0.06%
AUD	0.04%	0.12%	0.13%	0.28%	0.29%		0.11%	0.20%
NZD	-0.07%	0.04%	0.08%	0.13%	0.16%	-0.11%		0.09%
CHF	-0.13%	-0.05%	-0.04%	0.04%	0.06%	-0.20%	-0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one more interest rate hike this year are almost 88%.

Hawkish Fed bets have increased after the policy announcement last week, in which it raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled at least one more this year.

Meanwhile, investors await speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) members amid the completion of the blackout period. Later in the day, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak in London at an Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum event.

Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures, that high inflation remains a key concern for policymakers and is not just in rising oil prices.

Kashkari keeps hawkish bias as resilient US economy sustains inflation risks

Kashkari’s latest remarks score 6.2 on the FXS Speechtracker, essentially in line with the 6.3 historical average and signaling a steady hawkish tone. Emphasis that inflation “remains too high,” extends beyond oil, and must be addressed alongside robust growth, resilient activity, and improving productivity underscores a message that policy cannot relax yet even as the real economy shows strength. The reminder that the bond market is the Treasury’s responsibility, coupled with a still-robust labor market, keeps the focus on persistent underlying price pressures rather than market volatility.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 1.47 points to 150.61, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness while remaining firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that, despite a slight softening in tone, the Fed narrative tracked by the FXS Speechtracker is still clearly hawkish, consistent with a central bank that sees resilient growth and sticky inflation as reasons to keep policy restrictive.

On the global front, investors await meeting between US President Donald Trump and leaders from Gulf nations at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in New York beginning today (Monday, 21 September).

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 100.35. The near-term bias is bullish as price has pushed decisively above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 99.63, indicating that recent gains have tilted the short-term trend higher.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.15 sits in positive territory, suggesting building upside momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions.

On the topside, the immediate focus is whether the index can maintain its break above the 20-day EMA at 99.63, which now acts as a nearby dynamic reference for the bulls. Holding above this moving average would keep the constructive tone intact and leave room for further appreciation above the last week high near 100.55, while a daily close back below it would hint at a loss of upside traction and a possible pause in the current advance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

Interest Rate Projections - 1st year

At four of its eight scheduled meetings, the Federal Reserve (Fed) releases a Summary of Economic Projections, or ‘dot-plot’. This shows each member of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) forecast for where they expect the federal funds rate (the interest rate at which banks lend to each other) will go in the future. It can have a major impact on the US Dollar (USD), particularly if members change their forecasts. It is widely used as a guide to figure out the terminal rate and the possible timing of a policy pivot.

AUD/USD consolidates near 0.7000 as USD stays weak

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during Thursday’s Asian session, consolidating the previous day’s recovery gains from a near three-week low as the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections and Iran diplomacy hopes continue to weigh on the US Dollar. Bulls, however, seem hesitant as focus shifts to Friday’s crucial US NFP report.

USD/JPY drifts lower to 158.25 on hawkish BoJ Minutes, weak USD

USD/JPY trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Thursday as hawkish BoJ Minutes, showing members agreed to keep raising rates, and intervention risks support the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, US midterm election results and hopes for Iran diplomacy keep the US Dollar depressed as focus shifts to Friday’s US NFP report.

Gold trims gains, returns to $4,100

Gold now surrenders part of its initial bull run and appears on its way to challenge the key $4,100 region per troy ounce on Thursday. The precious metal extends it recovery on the back of the tepid advance in the Greenback and mixed US Treasury yields following the US midterm elections.

TRUMP token hits record low amid mounting selling pressure

Ripple and Stellar extend their recovery as bearish pressure begins to ease for both altcoins. XRP trades above $1.30 after breaking above the upper trendline of a falling channel pattern, while XLM holds above $0.168 and approaches resistance at $0.173. Meanwhile, improving derivatives metrics and strengthening momentum indicators hint at a potential for further recovery.

NFP stress test: Six payrolls releases, measured in daily-loss limits

Friday's US employment report is usually previewed in terms of the headline number and the reaction in the Dollar. For a growing group of traders, those running funded or evaluation accounts with a fixed daily loss limit, there is a more practical question: how much of that limit can the first hour consume, regardless of direction?

US Dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress

The US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.5% to trade near 101.35 after sliding below the 101.50 level. The Greenback retreats to its lowest level in four weeks as investors reassess the political and economic outlook following the Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the United States (US) midterm elections.