US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY sits near two-week top, above 102.00 ahead of FOMC

DXY struggles to capitalize on modest intraday gains on Wednesday to a near two-week high.
Bulls opt to lighten their bets and wait for the outcome of the key two-day FOMC meeting.
The constructive technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, eases from a nearly two-week high, touched earlier this Wednesday, as bulls turn cautious ahead of the crucial FOMC decision. The index, however, lacks follow-through and currently trades around the 102.35 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of a two-day meeting, suggesting that the focus will be on the accompanying policy statement and Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference. Investors will look for more cues about the Fed's future policy path, which, in turn, should provide a fresh impetus to the DXY ahead of Thursday's key US macro releases – the Advance Q3 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

From a technical perspective, the index maintains a constructive bullish bias following the recent breakout through the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and above the mid-range Fibonacci retracement levels. The lack of follow-through momentum beyond the 61.8% Fibo. retracement, however, warrants some caution for DXY bulls before positioning for any further upside. Moreover, oscillators on the said chart suggest firm but increasingly stretched bullish momentum.

Meanwhile, any further pullback could find initial support at the 50% Fibo. retracement at 102.20, which is followed by the 38.2% retracement at 102.02 and the 50-period SMA at 101.88. A deeper fall would expose the 23.6% level at 101.81 ahead of the structural floor near 101.45. On the topside, a fresh leg up beyond the 61.8% retracement at 102.38 might confront immediate resistance near the 78.6% level at 102.63, with further barriers clustered near the prior swing high area near 102.95.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

DXY 4-hour chart

Economic Indicator

Fed Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).

AUD/USD jumps to 0.7050, fresh one-month top after hot Australian CPI

AUD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day on Wednesday, rising to a fresh high since September 23 during the Asian session. A hot Australian CPI print reaffirmed bets for an imminent RBA rate hike in November and boosted the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar pauses after a three-day rally to a near two-week high ahead of the crucial FOMC rate decision, lending additional support to the currency pair.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold sticks to intraday losses below $4,050 as USD retains bullish bias ahead of FOMC

Gold remains offered below $4,050 during Wednesday's early European session, snapping a two-day winning streak ahead of the key central bank event. The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the focus will remain on the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting press conference.

Zcash's bullish momentum mounts on steady ETF inflows, retail confidence

Zcash extends steady recovery above $1,300 on Wednesday, approaching a key resistance near $1,373. Grayscale’s ZEC-focused Exchange-Traded Fund sees persistent buying pressure, with six straight days of inflows, including more than $3 million on Tuesday.

FOMC outlook: Why keeping rates unchanged might not be enough

Tomorrow's FOMC meeting could be quite interesting, even if the Federal Reserve decides to leave interest rates unchanged. According to the latest market expectations, there is currently a 92.8% probability that rates will remain at 3.75–4.00%, while the probability of another 25 basis point increase stands at just 7.2%.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.