United States Dollar Index Price Forecast: Holds above 101.00 ahead of US CPI, Fed's Warsh

DXY pauses after a two-day rally as bulls turn cautious ahead of the US CPI and Fed’s Warsh.
The constructive technical setup backs the case for an extension of the recent move higher.
Any corrective pullbacks might attract buyers and remain limited near the 100.55-100.50.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, sticks to modest intraday losses through the early European session on Tuesday as bulls seem hesitant ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures. Apart from this, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Kevin Warsh's inaugural congressional testimony will be looked for fresh cues about the policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the buck.

In the meantime, a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices and continues to fuel inflationary concerns. This reaffirms expectations that the Fed will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year and helps limit the downside for the US Dollar (USD). Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the index has topped out.

From a technical perspective, the DXY holds a bullish near-term bias above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 100.50-100.55 resistance breakpoint, now turned support. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.54 sits in bullish territory without being overbought. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly negative, hinting that upside momentum is constructive but not aggressive.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the previous year-to-date high, around the 100.80 area, before positioning for further gains. The DXY might then aim to surpass the 102.00 mark and prolong the move up from the May monthly swing low. On the flip side, initial support is located at 100.55-100.50 ahead of the 50-day SMA at 99.92, which marks the nearest underlying demand area for any corrective pullback.

As long as the DXY holds above this level, the broader technical structure favors further consolidation with a mild upward bias rather than a deeper reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

DXY daily chart

Economic Indicator

Fed Chair Warsh testifies

Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.

GBP/USD remains capped at 1.3600, awaits key US event risks

GBP/USD is consolidating in Friday's European trading after facing rejection at 1.3600 earlier on. Traders remain on the sidelines and refrain from placing fresh bets on the major ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision and Fed Chair Warsh's debut at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Both events could ramp up market volatility.

EUR/USD hovers around 1.1650 ahead of NFP revision, Warsh

EUR/USD is treading water at around 1.1650 in the European session on Friday. The pair faces headwinds as the US Dollar clings to its recent recovery ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. However, the downside appears cushioned by hawkish ECB expectations.

Gold holds gains above $4,600 as bullish bias prevails

Gold extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $4,610 during the European hours. The price of the precious metal is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias. The XAU/USD pair is retaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above both the nine-period and 50-period EMAs, keeping the short- and medium-term trends aligned to the upside.

Hyperliquid rally stretches thin amid treasury growth, CFTC innovation push

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is down 2% on Friday after reaching a record high of 86.75 the previous day. Nasdaq-listed Hyperliquid Strategies Inc raised almost $650 million in an equity deal to increase its HYPE holding to 29.3 million tokens. Hyperliquid is also pushing to expand its perpetual futures markets in the US.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September. The Jackson Hole symposium, held from August 27 to 29, has the official theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.