|

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Consolidates gains above 0.8130 with US CPI, Fed Warsh in focus

  • USD/CHF consolidates above 08i30 after hitting fresh YTD highs in the 0.8150 area.
  • US CPI is expected to confirm that inflation remained well above the Fed's target in June.
  • The US Dollar is on a bullish trend, aiming for the 0.8170 area.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading practically flat against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Tuesday, consolidating gains after a 0.7% rally on Monday, boosted by rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish Comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller.

Waller said on Monday that the Fed would have to tighten its monetary policy in the near-term if inflation remains above the 2% target. Investors brought forward rate hike bets, following Waller's comments, and sent the US Dollar higher across the board.

The focus on Tuesday is on June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is highly likely to confirm Waller’s expectations with figures well beyond target. These data are likely to frame the first session of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress, which is due later on the day. The risk is skewed to the upside for the US Dollar.

Technical Anañysis: The next bullish target is the 0.8170 area

USD/CHF Chart Analysis


USD/CHF broke the year-to-date high at 0.8130, confirming that the corrective reaction of the last two weeks has been completed, with the impulsive candle on the daily chart suggesting that bulls have taken control. Momentum indicators support this view, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) in positive territory without yet reaching extreme overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line attempting to cross the Signal line, which is a bullish sign.

Immediate resistance is at the mentioned high, at 0.8150, although the confluence of the July 2025 top and the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late June-early July reversal, at 0.8170, seems a more plausible target. Further up, the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned cycle is at 0.8210.

A confirmation below the previous YTD high, in the 0.8130 area, is likely to find support at the 0.8070-0.8080 area, where the bottom of the ascending channel from early June lows meets Monday's lows. Below here, bullish momentum would fade, and the July 2 low, near 0.8010, would return to the focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.04%0.23%0.36%-0.39%0.10%-0.55%0.69%
EUR-0.04%0.18%0.33%-0.44%0.01%-0.60%0.65%
GBP-0.23%-0.18%0.11%-0.61%-0.17%-0.77%0.51%
JPY-0.36%-0.33%-0.11%-0.82%-0.26%-0.95%0.28%
CAD0.39%0.44%0.61%0.82%0.57%-0.12%1.13%
AUD-0.10%-0.01%0.17%0.26%-0.57%-0.61%0.54%
NZD0.55%0.60%0.77%0.95%0.12%0.61%1.30%
CHF-0.69%-0.65%-0.51%-0.28%-1.13%-0.54%-1.30%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Guillermo Alcala

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

More from Guillermo Alcala
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold sticks to modest losses; seems vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold extends its intraday retracement slide from a one-week high, hitting a fresh daily low around $4,170 during the early European session. The US Dollar attracts fresh buyers after a modest downtick amid the US Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, which, in turn, is seen as weighing on the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin struggles as ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty weigh

Bitcoin hovers around $83,600 on Monday after a 3.1% correction last week. US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $681.10 million last week, snapping the three-week inflow streak. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals keep investors cautious.

The week ahead: A critical week as earnings and CPI test market

The Oil price is relatively stable this morning, and US and European stock markets are poised to open higher, as risk sentiment shrugs off an escalation in the Middle East and concerns about rising bond yields.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?
Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?