Taiwan Dollar: Policy-driven flows temper losses against US Dollar – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports that recent Taiwan Dollar (TWD) weakness is moderating, partly due to Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) guidance that banks execute large USD sell orders immediately, bringing forward natural supply. However, foreign equity selling and dividend-related USD demand still restrain recovery, with USD/TWD two-way moves likely.

Upside momentum pauses as USD supply emerges

"Recent weakness in TWD shows tentative signs of moderation. Part of the moderation may reflect the earlier CBC guidance for banks to execute large USD sell orders on the day received, rather than delaying or staggering them."

"This could have helped bring forward natural USD supply and temper the pace of TWD weakness."

"Still, the broader flow backdrop has not turned decisively positive, with foreign equity selling (week-to-date USD4.3bn) and dividend/remittance-related USD demand potentially still restraining the pace of TWD recovery."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI fell from overbought conditions. 2-way trades likely with risk of pullback."

"Resistance at 32.22 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 32.50/60 levels. Support at 31.95, 31.78 (21 DMA)."

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