Swiss Franc picks up from session lows following upbeat Swiss data releases

USD/CHF pulls back from session highs at 0.7840 but holds moderate daily gains.
Swiss GDP and Retail sales data beat expectations, triggering a mild CHF rebound.
Concerns about the fragile ceasefire in Iran are cushioning US Dollar dips.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Swiss Franc (CHF) holds moderate losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, but has bounced up from daily lows, as Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Retail Sales Figures pointed to a resilient economy in the face of the Iran war and the energy shock stemming from it. The USD/CHF pair trades at 0.7825 at the time of writing, after pulling back from session highs, near 0.7840.

Data released by the Swiss Federal Statistics Office revealed that economic growth accelerated to 0.7% in the first three months of the year, beating expectations of a 0.5% gain, and following an upwardly revised 0.2% growth in Q4. Compared with the same quarter last year, however, economic growth slowed down to 0.5%, following a 1% advance in the previous quarter.

Earlier on Monday, Swiss Retail Sales data also beat expectations with a 1.6% yearly growth in April, well above market forecasts of a 0.2% uptick. March’s reading was also revised up to a 1.3% jump from the 0.5% gain previously estimated.

Investors, however, remain cautious amid news of further escalation in the Middle East. The US has launched a fresh wave of strikes on military sites in Iran, while Tehran reported attacks on a US base. US President Donald Trump is still considering whether to sign an extension of the ceasefire or not, and Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that talk of a deal is “merely speculation.”

In the US, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report will gather the focus later on Monday. These figures are likely to set the tone ahead of a string of labour market reports, including the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which might shed some more light on the US Federal Reserve’s rate path.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Switzerland during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Swiss economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Economic Indicator

Real Retail Sales (YoY)

The Retail Sales data, released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on a monthly basis, measures the volume of goods sold by retailers in Switzerland. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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