Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers from one-month low and climbs back above $76.00
- Silver stages a modest recovery from a one-month low, though the upside potential seems limited.
- The technical setup favors bears, backing the case for the emergence of fresh sellers at higher levels.
- A sustained move beyond the $80.30 resistance is needed to negate the near-term negative outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher after showing some resilience below the $75.00 psychological mark and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak to a one-month low, touched the previous day. The white metal currently trades just below mid-$76.00s, up nearly 1.5% for the day, though the technical setup warrants caution before positioning for further gains.
Against the backdrop of the recent breakdown through a short-term ascending trend-line, the overnight weakness below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March move up favors the XAG/USD bears. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, close, 9) holds below the signal line and has slipped back under the zero line, suggesting strengthening downside momentum.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds slightly from oversold territory but remains below the 50 mark, which reinforces persistent selling pressure rather than a confirmed bottom. This suggests that the near-term bias seems tilted in favor of bears as long as the XAG/USD remains below the former trend-line support breakpoint. Hence, the upside potential beyond the $76.45 area (61.8% Fibo. level) seems limited.
On the downside, initial support aligns near the recent low around $75.90, followed by the $70.96 area at the 78.6% retracement if the decline extends. A recovery back above $80.30, or the 50.0% retracement level resistance, would be needed to ease the immediate bearish tone and signal that buyers are regaining control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
