Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls now await acceptance above $77.00/200-EMA on H4
- Silver gains strong positive traction and jumps to a fresh weekly top during the Asian session.
- The intraday move up stalls near the 200-period EMA pivotal resistance on the 4-hour chart.
- The broader technical setup favors the XAG/USD bulls and backs the case for additional gains.
Silver (XAG/USD) retreats slightly from the weekly high set earlier during the Asian session this Wednesday and currently trades just below mid- $76.00s, still up over 4.5% for the day. The US-Iran ceasefire news weighs heavily on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to underpin the white metal.
From a technical perspective, the strong intraday move up stalls near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. However, acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall and the $76.00 mark favors the XAG/USD bulls. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned back above its signal and pushes toward the zero line with a growing positive histogram, suggesting improving upside momentum after a period of consolidation.
Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 stays below overbought territory yet holds firmly above the 50 line, reinforcing a recovery tone without signalling exhaustion. A sustained strength above the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart at $76.85 will reaffirm the constructive setup and open the way for additional gains further toward the 50% retracement level at $79.03.
On the downside, the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $74.82 now acts as a nearby floor for the XAG/USD. A drop back below this level would expose secondary support toward $72.00, where recent swing lows cluster and downside momentum could reassert if broken.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
