Significant increase in Russian Oil shipments to India expected in September – Commerzbank

Bloomberg data showed that Russian Oil exports to India fell by almost 40% compared to the previous week to just over 800,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since October 2022, unless there will be an upward revision, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Russia may still be able to export more crude Oil

"However, traders expect Russian Oil deliveries to India to increase in September, as producers are likely to lower prices to sell the additional supply available due to refinery outages. Purchases by Indian refineries are therefore expected to increase by 10-20% or 150-300 thousand barrels per day compared to August, according to three trading sources."

"The US punitive tariffs that came into effect on Wednesday would thus have failed to have the desired effect. However, given the damage to Russia's energy infrastructure as a result of the Ukrainian drone attacks, it remains to be seen whether Russia will actually be able to export more crude Oil."

"Repair work at the damaged Oil port of Ust-Luga could take several months, according to sources familiar with the matter. Due to damage to the pipeline system, only half of the port's loading capacity is expected to be available in September."