ANZ analysts note that amid the financial market turmoil, they have added another 25bps cut for September from RBNZ to their forecasts, implying an OCR of 0.75% by year-end.
“The Q2 unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.2% to 3.9%. Then came the RBNZ; they decided to load our August and September 25bp cuts into one big 50bp hit in August, cutting the OCR to 1% and signalling that it could go even lower.”
“We still expect a November cut to take the OCR to 0.75%, but note that September remains live with this pre-emptive Committee at the helm.”
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