RBA may have a few more hikes up its sleeve to deliver – TDS

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Analysts at TD Securities note that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market by raising its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%.

Will assess RBA call following the SoMP on Friday

"We expected the Bank to remain on hold at 3.60% after last week's Q1 CPI release revealed inflation fell by more than the RBA expected."

"The preliminary forecasts provided in today's Statement on balance do not appear significantly different from the February Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) forecasts and on balance supported the Bank remaining on hold in our view."

"While the minutes of the April meeting were hawkish and read as more supportive of a hike than a pause at that meeting, today's Statement suggests the Bank may have a few more hikes up its sleeve to deliver. We will assess our RBA call following the SoMP on Friday and potentially after the 9th May Federal Budget."

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

GBP/USD climbs to four-day highs near 1.3250

GBP/USD rapidly reverses Friday’s small losses and challenges the 1.3250 level, or four-day tops, at the beginning of the week. Cable’s upside comes on the back of further loss of momentum in the Greenback, while traders continue to assess the geopolitical front and upcoming key events.

EUR/USD extends the advance past 1.1400

EUR/USD starts the week on a positive note, trading above 1.1400 on Monday as broad-based US Dollar weakness lends support to the pair. In the meantime, investors continue to monitor developments surrounding efforts to end the US-Iran conflict, while attention gradually shifts to the ECB's annual forum and the US NFP data.

Gold falters just ahead of $4,100

Gold remains under modest bearish pressure just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal struggles to extend its recent gains as renewed effervescence in the Middle East revives inflation concerns and bolsters Fed rate hike expectations.

Bitcoin four-year cycle: BTC risks 75% drawdown with four months of bear market still ahead

Bitcoin price continues to trend downward below the $60,000 support zone after losing over 50% of its value since the $126,199 high in October. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, measured from cycle tops to bottoms, suggests that four months of a bear market are still ahead.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.