Preview of key data events for the US economy - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the next key data events for the US economy.

Key Quotes:

"ADP private employment: Consistent with our forecast for the BLS August employment report, we expect ADP to show a 210k increase in private payroll employment during the month (Consensus: 200k). Initial jobless claims: Low readings on initial jobless claims remain consistent with steady job growth and a strong labor market."

"Productivity, Q2 final: The BEA’s second estimate of Q2 real GDP growth showed a slight 0.1pp upward revision, to 4.2% q-o-q saar. Thus, the final reading for productivity growth may be revised up slightly from the first estimate of 2.9% q-o-q saar. However, we continue to expect somewhat subdued productivity growth going forward."

"Factory orders: An advance reading for July showed modest gains in durable goods extransportation orders. However, the top line number for durable goods was weighed on in part by a sharp 34.6% m-o-m decline in orders for defense aircraft and parts, which could weigh on overall factory order activity in July. ISM non-manufacturing index: We expect the ISM nonmanufacturing index to increase slightly by 0.3pp to 56.0 in August (Consensus: 56.8) after a sharp 3.4pp drop in July. Part of the weakness in July was related to another sharp decline in the supplier deliveries index. We expect some modest payback in the August survey and believe that trade concerns may weigh less heavily on nonmanufacturing firms relative to the manufacturing survey. However, given that agricultural and mining firms are technically classified as non-manufacturers, and that many of the retaliatory tariffs thus far have targeted agricultural products, there remains some downside risk to the August print."