Pound Sterling moves little following UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD steadies following the release of better-than-expected UK Retail Sales data
UK Retail Sales fell 0.4% MoM in February, better than the -0.8% forecast, while YoY growth rose to 2.5%.
The US Dollar weakens as easing risk aversion follows Trump’s pause on attacks on Iran’s energy sector.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

GBP/USD halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.3330 during the early European hours on Friday. The pair holds ground following the release of the United Kingdom’s (UK) Retail Sales figures.

The UK Retail Sales declined by 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in February, against the expected -0.8% reading. The annual retail sales increased by 2.5%, against the expected 2.1%.

The UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index dropped to -21 in March from -19 in February, hitting a near one-year low as Middle East conflict concerns over inflation and growth weighed on sentiment.

The GBP/USD pair remains stronger as the US Dollar (USD) weakens on easing risk aversion after US President Donald Trump said Washington would pause attacks on Iran’s energy sector for 10 days at Tehran’s request. However, Iran denied making such a request, underscoring fragile diplomacy and low odds of a near-term ceasefire.

However, the GBP/USD pair may lose ground as the US Dollar may regain its ground amid rising inflation concerns on the fading likelihood of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and increased bets on a potential hike by year-end.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chair of Supervision Philip Jefferson said higher energy prices should have a modest impact on inflation, though a sustained shock could be more significant. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michael Barr warned that another price shock could lift inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for the Fed to assess economic conditions before adjusting policy.

Economic Indicator

Retail Price Index (MoM)

Retail Price Index released by the National Statistics is a statistical measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is widely considered as a key measure of inflation that indicates an accurate reflection of the cost of living. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

AUD/USD holds steady near 0.7200 amid escalating US-Iran tensions

AUD/USD consolidates just below its highest level since mid-May, touched on Friday, and hovers around 0.7200 at the start of a new week amid mixed cues. Hawkish RBA expectations continue to act as a tailwind for the Aussie. Meanwhile, the upbeat US NFP report lifted Fed rate hike bets, which, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, underpins the safe-haven US Dollar and caps the currency pair.

USD/JPY hovers around 156.00 as more hawkish BoJ bets cap gains

USD/JPY holds steady above 156.00 on Monday as the US Dollar draws support from escalating US-Iran tensions and rising Fed rate-hike bets, bolstered by Friday's upbeat NFP report. Moreover, concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook keep the Japanese Yen on the back foot and support the currency pair, though more hawkish BoJ expectations and a suspected intervention cap the upside.

Gold flat lines above $4,400 as Fed hike bets and Iran tensions support USD

Gold kicks off the new week on a subdued note, though it holds above $4,400. Friday's upbeat US NFP report lifted Fed rate hike bets, which, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, underpin the safe-haven US Dollar and cap the bullion. The lack of follow-through selling, however, warrants caution before confirming that the recent bounce from a nearly four-week low has run out of steam.

The week ahead: Dollar at a crossroads as CPI and ECB take centre stage

With the summer finally over, investors returned with a strong appetite for action. Following last week’s strong performance, the US dollar has taken a back seat so far this week, as oil, the yen and sovereign bond yields monopolized market interest.

CFTC report: Oil rebound offsets broader positioning retreat

The week in one sentence: Speculative positioning became more defensive in the week ending September 1. Yen short positioning recorded the largest deterioration, while Gold length also retreated. Oil buying returned alongside stronger prices, and Canadian Dollar and Euro positioning improved, although Euro flows diverged from weaker spot prices.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.