Polish Zloty: Pressured by politics and energy shock – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that the Polish Zloty has underperformed CE3 - Polish Złoty (PLN), Czech Koruna (CZK), and Hungarian Forint (HUF) - peers in 2026, with political risk overshadowing macro fundamentals. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has shifted from a data-driven easing cycle to a forced pause as the Iran war and higher Oil prices lift inflation risks. Fiscal interventions and political uncertainty keep PLN risk premia elevated, with EUR/PLN and USD/PLN seen on a mild medium-term depreciation path.

Politics and energy shock weigh on PLN

"The Polish zloty entered 2026 as the top underperformer among CE3 currencies, with political risk firmly dominating macro fundamentals."

"The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) earlier pivot toward easing was credible and data-driven, anchored in disinflation and stable expectations. Some policymakers have made clear statements that the March rate cut was the last for this year, with no scope for further easing in the near term as inflation risks rise again."

"In this environment, NBP is best described as being on hold – not because inflation is fundamentally above-target, but because uncertainty around the war and energy markets precludes further easing, especially when the government is having to implement fuel price caps to curb inflation."

"In the near term, the zloty faces additional downside pressure from elevated global risk aversion toward emerging markets and the uncertainty surrounding the oil price shock."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)