Oil: Expectations of increasing output joins dark demand recovery – TDS


Crude continues to trade at the top of the recent range, north of $40/bbl but concerns such as increases on the supply side and worries about demand recovery due to COVID-19 cases remain flying over the black gold, per TD Securities.

Key quotes

“After months of extremely deep market-driven and OPEC+ supply cuts, market expectations are starting to shift toward slight increases in shale output and tapering of the OPEC production cuts.” 

“The demand recovery remains a question amid new virus concerns, while headlines from China suggest that after a buying frenzy weak refiner margins could see teapot refiners reduce throughput by roughly 2m bpd.” 

“On the Canadian side of the border, crude could come under pressure as the US Supreme Court blocked construction of the Keystone XL pipeline in the US, which would delay the project into 2021, increasing the project's risk profile ahead of the US election.”

 

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