NZD/USD weakens amid strong US labor data and Trump’s Iran comments

NZD/USD falls as strong US ADP employment data supports the Greenback.
US President Trump warns the US “may have to give Iran another hit,” boosting safe-haven demand for the USD.
Investors await upcoming New Zealand Retail Sales and PMI data.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair falls toward the 0.5830 region on Wednesday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) strengthens following upbeat labor-market data and renewed tensions linked to Iran.

The latest ADP employment report showed that US private employers added 42,250 jobs in the first week of May, marking the strongest reading since October 2025. The stronger labor-market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could maintain a cautious stance on interest-rate cuts, supporting US Treasury yields and boosting the Greenback.

Additional pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) emerged after United States President Donald Trump stated that “we may have to give Iran another hit” and added that “Iran is begging to make a deal.” The comments revived fears of a broader escalation in the Middle East, increasing safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, and weighing on risk-sensitive currencies such as the NZD.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor upcoming New Zealand data releases, including Retail Sales and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Short-term technical analysis:

On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5836, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as the pair holds below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5857 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5905. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 33, reflecting persistent downside pressure, though the sub-40 reading also hints that sellers may be stretching the move as price stabilizes just above nearby support.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 0.5842, followed by a closer cap at 0.5849; a sustained break above these levels would be needed to challenge the 20-period SMA at 0.5857 and, later, the 100-period SMA at 0.5905. On the downside, immediate support is aligned at 0.5826, with a further floor at 0.5817; a drop through this band would reinforce the bearish bias and open the way to fresh lows on the four-hour horizon.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

GBP/USD clings to daily gains near 1.3350

GBP/USD holds just in positive territory around 1.3350 on Friday as the Greenback keeps a vacillating price action. With Fed rate hike expectations easing and US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, Cable remains on track to post solid weekly gains.

EUR/USD remains sidelined around 1.1440

EUR/USD holds on to its recent gains and consolidates around 1.1440 at the end of the week as the US Dollar lacks clear direction. In the meantime, trading conditions remain subdued, with volatility constrained by the closure of US markets for the Independence Day holiday.

Gold flirts with two-week highs, targets $4,200

Gold extends its recovery for a third straight day, advancing toward the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal looks set to snap a four-week losing streak as softer-than-expected June US NFP data prompt investors to scale back expectations of further Fed tightening.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP advance amid renewed capital inflows

Bitcoin maintains its upward momentum, holding above the $61,000 mark at the time of writing on Friday. Major altcoins such as Ethereum and Ripple are also posting gains, signaling a modest uptick in market sentiment and renewed risk appetite among investors.

The Iran war failed to trigger a recession. Can the US economy keep defying expectations?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.