|

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Tests levels sub-0.5800 as bulls run out of steam

  • NZD/USD extends its reversal from 0.5875 to session lows below 0.5800.
  • Market sentiment deteriorates as Iran's conflict threatens to expand within the region.
  • Kiwi's immediate bias remains positive, although bearish momentum is building up.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the NZD/USD pair dipping below 0.5800, after being rejected at the 0.5875 area earlier in the week. The Kiwi Dollar is giving away previous gains as higher Oil prices and concerns about the escalation of the Middle East conflict have offset the positive impact of the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) monetary policy stance.

The dismal market mood is finally taking a toll on the risk-sensitive Kiwi, as tensions in the Middle East remain high and reports of attacks on vessels sailing through the Red Sea raise concerns that the conflict might extend through the region, boosting fears of disruptions in Oil supply.

Against this background, the barrel of Brent Oil has crossed the $90 line for the first time in the last six weeks. This has prompted investors to shift their focus from inflation to the negative impact on economic growth of another energy shock, which will, ultimately, limit the central bank’s margin to tighten its monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: Key support is at the 0.5750 area

Chart Analysis NZD/USD

NZD/USD trades just below 0.5800, with bears gathering pace as intraday momentum indicators tread further within negative territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has retreated to 35, approaching oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, altogether hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet at a clear reversal.

The pair might find some support at previous resistance around 0.5790 (July 10, 13 highs), although the key support area lies at the confluence of the immediate trendline support and the July 13 low, in the area of 0.5750. A confirmation below here would put bears in control, and bring the July 6 and 8 lows, around 0.5675, into focus.

Upside attempts, on the contrary, have been contained below 0.5825 on Thursday, while the key resistance area is in the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June selloff, at 0.5855, and Tuesday's high, at the mentioned 0.5875, which has capped bulls several times during the current month.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

New Zealand Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.08%0.02%0.11%-0.13%-0.08%0.26%0.05%
EUR0.08%0.11%0.21%-0.05%0.00%0.36%0.13%
GBP-0.02%-0.11%0.11%-0.17%-0.11%0.25%0.02%
JPY-0.11%-0.21%-0.11%-0.25%-0.20%0.13%-0.08%
CAD0.13%0.05%0.17%0.25%0.04%0.39%0.16%
AUD0.08%-0.00%0.11%0.20%-0.04%0.36%0.16%
NZD-0.26%-0.36%-0.25%-0.13%-0.39%-0.36%-0.24%
CHF-0.05%-0.13%-0.02%0.08%-0.16%-0.16%0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Guillermo Alcala

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

More from Guillermo Alcala
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading 

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.