NZD/USD Price Forecast: Resumes the bullish trend and tests monthly highs around 0.5860
- NZD/USD rallies on Monday despite the risk-off mood and tests monthly highs at 0.5860.
- Fed/RBNZ monetary policy divergence is supporting the Kiwi.
- Technical indicators point to an overstretched rally.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) resumed its broader bullish trend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following a mild pullback over the previous two trading days. Bulls are pushing against the resistance area between 0.5860 and 0.5865, so far unaffected by the risk-off mood amid the hostilities in Iran.
The Kiwi Dollar has been drawing support from the favourable monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). New Zealand’s central bank hiked interest rates earlier in July and hinted at further tightening in the coming months, while, in the US, the soft inflation figures seen last week have dampened hopes of a rate hike in the near term.
This, so far, is offsetting the negative impact on the risk-sensitive Kiwi from the escalating tensions between the US and Iran and the surging Crude Oil prices.
Technical Analysis: Indicators hint at an overstretched rally
NZD/USD trades at 0.5862, holding a constructive near-term bias as it clings to gains above the reclaimed ascending trend-line support. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14), near 70, shows overbought conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has started to soften, hinting that upside strength might be losing momentum.
On the topside, bulls are pushing against the mentioned resistance area ahead of 0.5865 (June 15, July 15 highs). Further up, a previous support-turned-resistance, around 0.5910 (June 1 low), looks a plausible target.
A bearish reaction, on the contrary, is likely to be tested at the trendline support, now around 0.5835, ahead of Friday's low at 0.5825. A deeper pullback might look for support at the July 10 and 13 highs, just below 0.5800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.19% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.26% | -0.27% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.12% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.21% | -0.25% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.12% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.24% | -0.22% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.10% | 0.02% | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | 0.26% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.00% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | 0.27% | 0.25% | 0.12% | 0.22% | 0.19% | -0.01% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.09% | 0.05% | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.07% | -0.18% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
