NZD/USD Price Forecast: Falls to July 29 lows as bears retain control below 0.5800
- NZD/USD attracts heavy sellers on Monday and drops to a one-and-a-half-month low.
- Rising Fed hike bets and geopolitical risks boost the USD, exerting pressure on the pair.
- The bearish technical setup backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.
The NZD/USD pair meets with fresh supply at the start of a new week and drops to its lowest level since July 29, around the 0.5780 region during the early European session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside.
The latest US inflation figures, released last week, lifted market bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates at the end of a two-day policy meeting later this week. Apart from this, a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran lends additional support to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). Moreover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) dovish outlook contributes to the NZD/USD pair's offered tone and validates the near-term negative outlook.
Last week's breakdown below the 0.5855-0.5850 confluence – comprising the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August upswing was seen as a key trigger for bears. Furthermore, the bearish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just above oversold territory around 35 hint that downside pressure is still dominant but becoming stretched.
Meanwhile, immediate support aligns with the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 0.5764, ahead of the 78.6% level at 0.5704, where sellers could pause to reassess. A sustained bounce from these supports would be needed to challenge overhead resistance at 0.5807 and a secondary cap at the 0.5849 confluence. As long as NZD/USD holds beneath this resistance, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective within the prevailing bearish framework.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.39% | 0.24% | 0.56% | 0.05% | 0.45% | 0.60% | 0.36% | |
| EUR | -0.39% | -0.13% | 0.14% | -0.37% | 0.05% | 0.22% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.24% | 0.13% | 0.27% | -0.21% | 0.19% | 0.35% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.56% | -0.14% | -0.27% | -0.50% | -0.07% | 0.05% | -0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | 0.37% | 0.21% | 0.50% | 0.39% | 0.54% | 0.24% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.05% | -0.19% | 0.07% | -0.39% | 0.16% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.60% | -0.22% | -0.35% | -0.05% | -0.54% | -0.16% | -0.33% | |
| CHF | -0.36% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.24% | -0.24% | 0.18% | 0.33% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
