NZD/USD Price Analysis: Rising wedge, 200-HMA probe Kiwi pair’s NZ budget-inspired rise

NZD/USD remains on the front foot around intraday high inside weekly rising wedge.
Gradually improving RSI conditions suggest further grinding of Kiwi pair towards the north.
200-HMA, fortnight-old horizontal hurdle challenge NZD/USD bulls.
Clear break of 0.6240 can recall sellers targeting monthly low.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

NZD/USD remains firmer around the weekly top as it prints mild gains near 0.6265 during the second consecutive positive day heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Kiwi pair stays within a bearish chart formation called a rising wedge comprising multiple levels marked since the last Friday.

However, the gradual uplift of the RSI (14) line, not overbought, keeps the NZD/USD buyers hopeful of defying the stated bearish chart formation by crossing the 0.6275 upside hurdle.

Even so, the 200-HMA and a fortnight-old horizontal resistance area, respectively near 0.6285 and 0.6315, can prod the NZD/USD bulls before directing them to the monthly peak of 0.6385.

It’s worth noting that tops marked in February and April highlight the 0.6385-90 area as a short-term key hurdle for the pair to cross. Also acting as an important upside barrier is the 0.6400 round figure.

On the contrary, a downside break of the 0.6240 mark comprising the stated wedge’s lower line can confirm the bearish chart pattern, which theoretically suggests a fall towards the monthly of near 0.6160.

However, the latest swing low and the previous monthly bottom, close to 0.6180 and 0.6110, act as additional downside filters for the NZD/USD pair traders to watch during the quote’s further declines.

Overall, NZD/USD is likely to grind higher but the bearish chart formation and the key Hourly Moving Average (HMA) prod the bulls.

NZD/USD: Hourly chart

Trend: Limited upside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	0.626
Today Daily Change	0.0012
Today Daily Change %	0.19%
Today daily open	0.6248

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6224
Daily SMA50	0.6226
Daily SMA100	0.6277
Daily SMA200	0.616

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6274
Previous Daily Low	0.6226
Previous Weekly High	0.6385
Previous Weekly Low	0.6182
Previous Monthly High	0.6389
Previous Monthly Low	0.6111
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6256
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6244
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6225
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6201
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6177
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6273
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6297
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6321

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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