NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears in play below recent highs to 38.2% weekly Fibo

NZD/USD is offering a 1:3 risk to reward high probability trade setup.
The US dollar has picked up a bid of late and there could be some juice left in the bullish case.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

NZD/USD has been in favour and highly overextended in the positioning data of late.

The recent fundamentals have been baked into the cake which has spurred on a recovery attempt in the greenback.

The following is a top-down analysis that takes these considerations and targets a weekly 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the W-formation's impulse.

Monthly chart

While the price is bullish above the old resistance, the pair needs a correction and the 38.2% Fibonacci lines-up with old resistance looking left.

Weekly chart

The weekly W formation is an extended impulse that needs to correct.

The weekly 38.2% is located in line with old structure looking left, slightly higher up than the monthly target.

Daily chart

The daily wick would be expected to be filled in.

4-hour chart

A stop-loss, SL, would be placed above the structure and recent highs with a target to the weekly 38.2% Fibo for a 1:3 risk to reward probability.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD gathers strength to near 1.3550 as Fed hike bets fade, UK jobs data loom

The GBP/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.3550 during the early Asian trading hours. The US Dollar softens against the British Pound as cooler US inflation data have prompted traders to reduce bets on a US Federal Reserve rate hike. The UK employment report will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

EUR/USD flat lines below two-month high amid oil-driven inflation fears

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around the 1.1575-1.1580 region during the Asian session, and for now seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from a two-month top. However, a modest US Dollar uptick warrants some caution before positioning for the resumption of the recent move higher from the 1.1350 area, or the July monthly swing low.

Gold bulls take a breather before the next push higher

Gold is retreating after hitting three-day highs just below $4,450 early Tuesday, and is flirting with $4,400 as of writing. Gold bulls take a breather following two consecutive days of gains, assessing the impact of the truce lapse between the United States (US) and Iran on Oil prices and US Treasury bond yields.

Bitcoin rebounds while Polygon, Zcash lead gains

The broader cryptocurrency market shows a mild easing in the persistent risk-off sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising above $64,000. Polygon (POL) and Zcash (ZEC) have emerged as top performers over the last 24 hours, with bulls eyeing further gains. CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index at 40 on Tuesday suggests a mild recovery from risk-averse conditions.

Silver’s new era: Supply deficits meet exploding industrial demand

Silver has experienced a wild ride in 2026, but The Silver Institute President and CEO Michael DiRienzo says investors shouldn’t let the volatility obscure a much bigger story: the underlying silver market remains remarkably strong.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.