WTI Price Forecast: Bulls retain near two-week top, above $84.00 and 38.2% Fibo.
- WTI is seen consolidating its recent move higher to a two-week top, set earlier this Tuesday.
- Supply concerns stemming from the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz lend support.
- The bullish technical setup backs the case for an extension of the recent upward trajectory.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – enters a bullish consolidation phase after hitting an over two-week high during the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades around the $84.20 region. Uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keep the geopolitical risk premium in play and continue to act as a tailwind for the black liquid.
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a near-term bullish bias above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August slide. Moreover, momentum indicators stay constructive and back the case for a further near-term appreciating move. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 56, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is above zero and edging higher.
Bullish pressure, however, still needs to clear a key structural barrier near the $86.65-$86.70 confluence – comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a downward-sloping trend line. The 50.0% Fibo. level reinforces the overhead hurdle at $87.23, which, if cleared, should pave the way for an extension of the upward trajectory towards the stronger resistance near the 61.8% Fibo. level, at $91.93.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near $82.53, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $76.72 if sellers regain control. Some follow-through selling would expose the monthly swing low, around mid-$73.00s, before WTI eventually drops to test sub-$70.00 levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
