|

NZD may lag, saddled by the fallout of high rates in the housing sector – ING

Economists at ING think there are more downside risks to NZD compared to AUD over the course of 2023. 

NZD less attractive than AUD

“An ultra-hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand is good from a carry perspective, but has already generated a large slump in house prices. This trend may accelerate and pose serious threats to the economic outlook.” 

“We think the RBNZ will underdeliver and fall well short of their projected 5.5% peak rate to save the property market.”

“The resignation of the NZ prime minister does not have major implications for now, but might add a little uncertainty along the way.”

“AUD/NZD to break through 1.10 soon.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD appears well offered near 1.3160

GBP/USD builds on Tuesday’s losses, although it now manages to pick up some pace and bounce off earlier multi-month troughs near 1.3140. The Greenback’s solid performance and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD trims losses, hovers around 1.1350

EUR/USD now regains some composure and rebounds to the 1.1350 zone on Wednesday, partially reversing the prior pullback to fresh yearly lows near 1.1320. Meanwhile, spot remains on the back foot as the US Dollar continues to draw support from hawkish Fed expectations and uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran peace negotiations.

Gold pressured near fresh 2026 lows

Gold accelerates its decline and gyrates around the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday, its lowest level since November 2025. In the meantime, tighter-for-longer Fed expectations and a broadly firmer US Dollar continue to weigh on the yellow metal, while uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement has done little to revive demand for the safe haven space.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trade under pressure as September Fed rate-hike odds increase

Bitcoin is trading between $62,000 and $63,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by headwinds stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

US-Iran talks: The next 60 days will decide where Oil prices go next
Oil markets received some encouraging news after weeks of rising tensions in the Middle East. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves: we’re far from victory, and markets just seem to have priced out the worst-case scenario. The US and Iran have reportedly made "substantive progress" in talks in Switzerland and agreed on a framework for working toward a broader deal within 60 days.
Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.