NIESR cites 60% risk of UK recession during British elections

Anil Panchal FXStreet

UK's leading thinktank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), said late Tuesday, per The Guardian, that it would take until the third quarter (Q3) of 2024 for British output to return to its pre-pandemic peak.

“There was a 60% risk of the government going to the polls during a recession,” adds the NIESR per The Guardian.

The NIESR’s quarterly update also states that the poorest tenth of the population had been especially hard hit by Britain’s cost of living crisis and would need an income boost of £4,000 a year to have the same living standards they enjoyed in the year before Covid-19 arrived.

It’s worth noting, however, that the NIESR appears divided about witnessing a contraction in British economic activity during late 2023.

Furthermore, the British thinktank also expects the British inflation to remain well beyond the Bank of England's (BoE) 2.0% target for the next four years while also expecting the price pressure gauge to ease from 7.9% to 5.2% by the end of 2023.

Market reaction

GBP/USD fades bounce off the weekly low around 1.2745 as the news amplifies British recession concerns and gains support from the broad risk-off mood.

Also read: GBP/USD Price Analysis: Cable bears stay hopeful near 1.2750 as US Dollar cheers risk aversion

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD surges to multi-day peaks past 1.3250

GBP/USD leaves behind Friday’s small pullback and advances past 1.3250 level, or five-day highs, on Monday. Cable’s upside follows extra losses in the Greenback, while traders continue to assess the geopolitical front and upcoming key events.

EUR/USD pops to daily highs near 1.1430

EUR/USD starts the week on a positive note, climbing to as high as the 1.1430 zone, or daily tops, on Monday. The pair’s recovery comes in response to the broad-based US Dollar weakness, while investors continue to monitor developments from the Middle East ahead of the beginning of the ECB's annual forum.

Gold remains supported by $4,000

Gold remains under marked selling pressure, holding on just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the beginning of the week. The precious metal reverses two daily advances in a row as renewed effervescence in the Middle East revive inflation concerns and bolster Fed rate hike expectations.

Bitcoin four-year cycle: BTC risks 75% drawdown with four months of bear market still ahead

Bitcoin price continues to trend downward below the $60,000 support zone after losing over 50% of its value since the $126,199 high in October. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, measured from cycle tops to bottoms, suggests that four months of a bear market are still ahead.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.