Nasdaq Elliott Wave: Climbing the 5th wave

Executive summary

• Trend Bias: Wave v of (v) rally.
• Key Support Level: 30.092.
• If correct, wave v could carry up to 31,388 – 31,579.

For the past 3 months, Nasdaq has essentially marched higher with only a few breaks. Yesterday, a trend line was broken alerting us to a tired uptrend. Though higher prices are possible, divergence and broken trend lines imply a correction may be looming around the corner.

Current Elliott Wave analysis

Our Elliott wave analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart shows the rally from the March 2026 low to now is shaping an Elliott wave impulse pattern. 

Impulses include 5-subwaves, in this case labeled (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v).

It appears Nasdaq is in the final wave of the sequence, wave (v). 5th waves also subdivide into 5-waves and this week’s low appears to be a 4th wave. This means the larger wave count is that yesterday’s rally kicked off wave v of (v)…an ending wave at multiple degrees of trend.

There are a couple of wave relationships we are following that may point to a hesitation in price.

Wave (v) would be the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of wave (i) at 31,388.

Additionally, wave (v) is the 38% Fibonacci extension of waves (i)-(iii) at 31,579.

Therefore, this price zone between 31,388 – 31,579 may create some hesitation in prices.

If prices fall below 30,092, it’ll be an early warning signal that a larger setback is underway. If 28,567 horizontal support is broken, then it would signal a more significant top has shaped.

Bottom line

The structure of the rally from March is a mature impulse pattern. Further upside may be available to 31,388 – 31,579, but prices appear to be in an ending wave at multiple degrees of trend.

If 30,092 breaks, then a larger setback may lead to more losses.