Malaysia: BNM growth upgrade and stable OPR support MYR – Commerzbank

Commerzbank notes Bank Negara Malaysia raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.0–5.0% on resilient domestic demand, with consumption and investment underpinned by wages, labour market strength and government support. BNM expects moderate inflation and assumes Brent at USD70–90, keeping the OPR at 2.75% for 2026.

Stronger growth outlook with steady policy

"In its 2025 Annual Report, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.0–5.0% from 4.0–4.5% previously, citing resilient domestic demand."

"BNM expects the Middle East conflict to add to inflationary pressures, though price growth is still projected to remain moderate at 1.5–2.5% this year, slightly above the government’s 1.3–2.0% forecast."

"The outlook assumes Brent crude prices in the USD70–90 range."

"On monetary policy, BNM is expected to keep the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 2.75% for the rest of the year."

"With growth holding firm and inflation contained, the central bank is likely to remain on hold to preserve policy space, with rate cuts contingent on a material slowdown in growth."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)