Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) still has room for more downside

The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) is designed to mirror the MVIS® Global Junior Gold Miners Index, giving investors targeted access to smaller‑capitalization gold producers across international markets. Because junior miners tend to exhibit greater volatility and higher growth potential, the fund is often viewed as a high‑beta vehicle for trading and investing in gold price trends.

GDXJ monthly Elliott Wave view

On the monthly timeframe, GDXJ carved out a significant low in 2016 at $16.87. From that base, the ETF began climbing in a layered impulsive advance. The initial wave (I) topped at $52.50, after which a corrective phase in wave (II) pulled prices down to $19.52. Momentum then rebuilt, with wave I of (III) reaching $65.95 before wave II of (III) retraced to $25.64. A powerful extension followed, as wave III of (III) surged to $157.49. The market has since entered a wave IV of (III) correction, which remains unfinished. This suggests that further weakness is possible before the corrective phase concludes and the broader uptrend resumes.

GDXJ daily Elliott Wave view

The daily Elliott Wave structure of GDXJ highlights the internal development of wave (III). The corrective wave II of (III) bottomed at $25.64, while the subsequent wave III of (III) surged to $157.49. That advance unfolded as a textbook five‑wave impulse, subdividing into waves ((1))–((2))–((3))–((4))–((5)). The market has since transitioned into a wave IV correction, which is evolving as a double three. Within this sequence, wave ((W)) completed at $106.59 and wave ((X)) at $136.55. Current price action suggests additional downside potential toward the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((W)), spanning $49.26–$82.69. This zone is expected to provide support and set the stage for the next upward cycle.