Japanese Yen: Japan’s fiscal pivot and GPIF flows reshape rates – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights Japan’s new fiscal guidelines under Prime Minister Takaichi, which prioritize proactive spending and long-term investment over near-term consolidation. The plan targets large public-private outlays and abandons the single-year primary surplus goal, while GPIF and insurers increase domestic and super-long JGB exposure, influencing USD/JPY and Japanese Yen (JPY) rate dynamics.

Proactive spending and JGB demand in focus

"Japan’s Cabinet approved its first economic and fiscal policy guidelines under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, marking a clear shift toward aggressive, strategic fiscal spending with no explicit call for fiscal consolidation. The blueprint treats the next fiscal year from April as the first year of “responsible and proactive” spending and targets ¥370tn of combined public-private investment by fiscal 2040, with a focus on 17 areas, especially semiconductors."

"It also introduces a new budget allotment from fiscal 2027 and ends the traditional push for a single-year primary surplus, instead seeking to steadily lower the debt-to-GDP ratio over time. The government aims for real growth above 1% and nominal growth above 3% and plans to decide on a possible food tax cut by early August. It reiterated that monetary policy remains the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) responsibility."

"Japanese insurers bought the most super-long JGBs in three years in June, signaling that demand from a key buyer is stabilizing as yields look more attractive. Life and casualty insurers bought a net ¥630.5bn of JGBs with maturities over 10 years, the largest amount since July 2023."

"The move suggests some investors are warming again to long-dated debt after yields peaked in mid-May. The report also notes policy support, including a proposal to add government bonds to a tax-free investment program and Takaichi’s comments encouraging the GPIF to raise investment in Japanese financial assets. Meanwhile, overseas investors sold the most 2y and 5y notes since December 2022, as demand weakened after the BOJ raised rates in mid-June and signaled further hikes if the economy warrants."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)