Is the 7 May second-round polling likely to change in the next two weeks? - Nomura

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Analysts at Nomura explained that the second-round polling so far has been largely hypothetical as undecided voters or those who are disappointed not to see their candidate making it into the second round will now be making their choices in full knowledge of the options.

Key Quotes:

"So as undecided or disappointed voters do so, they move the polling. In the last two elections we have seen a “Sarkozy swing” toward the centre-right candidate, but as this election is being fought on less of a left-right divide we should not necessarily expect the same.

Looking through the history of second-round polling since the 1980s, even if we see the typical narrowing of 5% or so it will not be enough to worry the market. The large leads Mr Macron has in the second round in excess of 25% provide the market with that comfort as it is more than double the typical margin of error for polling leads."

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD falls hard to test 0.7100 amid risk aversion

AUD/USD is under intense selling pressure in Friday's Asian trading, attacking the 0.7100 level. Broad risk-aversion amid US-Iran uncertainty, combined with weak Australian GDP data, weighs heavily on the higher-yielding Australian Dollar. All eyes now remain on the US NFP report for fresh impetus.

USD/JPY coiling up around 160.00 amid 'Yentervention' threats

USD/JPY sits glued near 160.00 in Asia on Friday, as the Japanese Yen remains supported by persistent 'Yentervention' threats by Japan's officials. However, the pair's downside remains capped by the Mideast tensions-led risk-off mood and the US Dollar's bullish consolidation.

Gold drops back toward $4,400 on US-Iran standoff, US NFP eyed

Gold price returns to the red and approaches $4,400 in the Asian session on Friday. The precious metal remains volatile amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday.

DeFi hack losses drop 80% from 2022 peak as security defenses improve — Immunefi

Losses from decentralized finance exploits have fallen by 80% since reaching a record high in 2022, according to a report released by Immunefi. The report, which analyzed exploit-driven losses across major blockchain ecosystems between 2020 and 2025, found that DeFi protocol losses declined from $2.62 billion in 2022 to $534 million in 2024.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.