Is MOS heading back to its December lows? Key levels to watch after Friday’s retreat

The Mosaic Company (MOS), a heavyweight in the global agriculture sector and a primary supplier of potash and phosphates, hit a wall on Friday. Shares dipped nearly 2% following a fresh "Sell" rating from analysts who labeled the stock a "value trap." The primary concern cited was negative cash flow, a warning that clearly spooked investors who were looking for a turnaround in the fertilizer giant.

From a technical perspective, the timing of this news couldn't have been worse. On Thursday, we saw some promising price action as MOS pushed above a critical resistance trendline at $26.48—a level dating back to a pivot in November 2024. While Thursday’s break felt significant, Friday’s follow-through was nonexistent. The price was unable to maintain the breakout and has since retreated back beneath the trendline.

Curiously, this marks the third time MOS has attempted to clear this $26.48 level only to fail. It remains the near-term "line to beat" for any meaningful technical breakout. If the bulls can find the strength for another attack on this trendline in the near future, the next hurdles sit at $27.85 (the high of that nasty November 5th red candle) and $28.90.

On the downside, the bulls need to play defense quickly. To maintain enough near-term momentum for another run at the resistance, MOS must hold the $25.39 level. If that level gives way, the momentum will likely shift back to the bears, potentially dragging price back down to the December lows of $23.32.