Indonesian Rupiah: Watching for retracement signs – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that IDR remains under pressure despite new IDX measures to address MSCI’s transparency concerns. They retain a mildly cautious bias, stressing that enforcement and foreign portfolio flows will be crucial for restoring confidence. Technically, USD/IDR shows mild bullish momentum near prior highs, with resistance and support levels framing potential retracement.

Governance steps yet to lift Rupiah

"IDR traded under pressure on Monday despite fresh measures announced by Indonesian authorities to address MSCI’s concerns over market transparency and trading practices."

"The IDX plans to include independent experts and foreign investor representatives in its oversight of stocks with concentrated ownership, step up investigations into suspected coordinated trading and freeze accounts linked to potential manipulation from November."

"Stocks with highly concentrated ownership will also be excluded from the Jakarta Composite Index from 2 November. The muted FX response suggests that investors are still waiting to see how effectively these measures are implemented."

"We retain a mildly cautious bias on IDR. BI’s policy measures may help contain near-term volatility, but they cannot fully address concerns over market governance."

"USD/IDR last closed at 18124. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose to near overbought conditions. While upside bias remains intact, we continue to look for signs of any technical turnaround as the pair approaches its prior high."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 as Fed and RBA, inflation tests loom

The Australian Dollar consolidates for the fourth straight day versus the US Dollar, yet registers modest gains of 0.11%, as price action shifts to choppy ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. A busy US economic docket barely moved the markets, while traders eye the release of Australia’s Consumer Price Index.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold rises above $4,050 ahead of Fed rate decision

Gold price jumps to around $4,065 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by lower oil prices. Traders await the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later on Wednesday for signals on ‌the future path of US interest rates.

Australia CPI set to climb in September, fueling RBA rate-hike bets

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that inflation rose 4.2% from a year earlier, higher than the 4% posted in August. The monthly CPI is forecast at 0.7% following the 0.4% print from the previous month.

What can we expect from the RBNZ monetary policy decision?

On Wednesday, October 28 at 01:00 GMT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, led by Governor Anna Breman, is expected to raise the Overnight Cash Rate by 25 basis points, from 2.75% to 3%, as money markets price in a 100% chance. This would be the third-rate hike by the RBNZ, while the odds for another hike in December are nearly 50%.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.