Indonesian Rupiah loses ground on Middle East uncertainty

USD/IDR rises as the Indonesian Rupiah weakens on market caution amid Middle East uncertainties and the US-Iran truce.
Traders await key Indonesian data on Wednesday, including the Manufacturing PMI, trade balance figures, and consumer inflation results.
The US Dollar holds ground as sensitive traders continually re-evaluate Middle East developments.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

USD/IDR gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 17,900 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces challenges due to market caution, which could be attributed to the Middle East uncertainty following the latest military clashes between the United States (US) and Iran and its temporary truce.

Traders are eyeing Indonesia's key economic data due on Wednesday, including the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), trade balance, and inflation. June inflation data is highly awaited after May headline figures hit 3.08%, nearing Bank Indonesia's (BI) 1.5%–3.5% target ceiling due to surging food and energy costs.

Meanwhile, investor sentiment faces headwind pressures over governance and transparency concerns after new legislation granted blanket legal immunity for purchases of bonds issued by the state investment fund, Danantara.

The US Dollar (USD) holds ground as traders remain highly sensitive to breaking news out of the Middle East, as they continuously re-evaluate the region's stability and its broader influence on global risk sentiment. The friction began on Thursday when an unidentified projectile struck a cargo vessel, prompting both nations to trade blame for violating an interim ceasefire originally established on June 17.

However, Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary truce ahead of crucial peace talks in Doha to negotiate a formal end to the hostilities, easing the geopolitical anxieties that had briefly unnerved global markets.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

GBP/USD advances above 1.3500 as easing Fed hike bets down USD

GBP/USD extends the advance above 1.3500 in the European trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar drops against the British Pound as cooler-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data have limited the Fed's room for further interest rate hikes. Traders will keep an eye on the US July Retail Sales report and the Consumer Sentiment data later this Friday.

EUR/USD climbs above 1.1550 as US Dollar slips ahead of data

EUR/USD gains traction in the European session on Friday and trades in positive territory above 1.1550. The pair capitalizes on renewed US Dollar weakness, as doubts over a September Fed rate hike offset lingering Middle East concerns. The US Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment data are in focus later in the day. Meanwhile, the data from the Eurozone showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 1% in the second quarter, as expected.

Gold sticks to losses but holds above $4,300 as reduced Fed hike bets weigh on USD

Gold recovers slightly from the $4,300 neighborhood heading into the European session, though it remains in negative territory for the second straight day. Moreover, a mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the retracement slide from $4,450, or the highest since June 5, set the previous day.

Bitcoin SV hits three-month high, eyeing 200-day EMA breakout

Bitcoin SV is up nearly 2% extending a steady upward trend over the last two weeks. Retail strength builds in BSV amid multiple vulnerabilities found in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Bitcoin SV’s technical outlook is bullish as the price tests an upside breakout above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average at $15.39.

UoM Consumer Sentiment Index set to ease as inflation, labour market worries loom

The University of Michigan will release the preliminary estimate of August’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. US consumers’ confidence is expected to have ticked down to 54.5 in August from 55.2 in July, as measured by the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.