|

Indonesian Rupiah holds losses as US Dollar receives support from Fed hike bets

  • USD/IDR holds gains as the US Dollar receives support from rising Fed rate hike bets.
  • The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 63.4% probability of an interest rate increase in September.
  • Traders await Indonesia’s June inflation data following an El Niño-driven spike in May food prices, keeping markets on high alert.

USD/IDR inches lower after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 18,000 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair holds gains as the US Dollar (USD) finds support from growing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have priced in a 63.4% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates during its September 15–16 meeting.

This hawkish sentiment is fueled by accelerating inflation data, with the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbing to 4.1% year-over-year in May, up from 3.3% in April. This surge, the first time the headline figure has breached 4.0% in three years, is largely attributed to rising energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, keeping the prospect of further rate increases this year firmly on the table.

Furthermore, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, rose to 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.3%. This represents the highest annual core reading since October 2023.

Market participants are keenly awaiting next week's release of Indonesia’s June inflation data, keeping a close eye on food costs after El Niño-induced supply issues triggered the fastest annual surge in seven months this past May. Despite these brewing inflationary concerns, deeper market weakness was successfully cushioned by strong foreign capital inflows. International investors poured roughly IDR 105 trillion into the central bank's one-year securities and government bonds throughout June.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.00%-0.04%-0.08%-0.05%0.28%0.13%-0.06%
EUR-0.00%-0.05%-0.06%-0.01%0.28%0.10%-0.04%
GBP0.04%0.05%0.00%0.02%0.34%0.20%-0.01%
JPY0.08%0.06%0.00%0.03%0.35%0.18%0.00%
CAD0.05%0.00%-0.02%-0.03%0.33%0.15%-0.04%
AUD-0.28%-0.28%-0.34%-0.35%-0.33%-0.16%-0.36%
NZD-0.13%-0.10%-0.20%-0.18%-0.15%0.16%-0.18%
CHF0.06%0.04%0.01%-0.01%0.04%0.36%0.18%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

More from Akhtar Faruqui
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD stays weak above 0.6900 after China’s trade data

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s recovery and stays defensive on the 0.6900 level following the narrowing of trade surplus in China. Increased December Fed rate hike bets allows the US Dollar to pause its decline and weigh on the pair. US CPI data is next of note for the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 on weak Japanese data; focus shifts to US CPI

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Tuesday as a fall in Japan’s Household Spending offsets hawkish BoJ Summary of Opinions, undermining the Japanese Yen. Moreover, Fed hike bets support the safe-haven US Dollar and the currency pair. The market focus now shifts to the release of the crucial US CPI report.

Gold slides below $4,100 as Fed hike bets exert pressure ahead of US CPI

Gold extends its intraday descent and slides below the $4,100 mark, reversing a major part of the previous day's strong gains to the $4,150 resistance. Firming US Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations turn out to be a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, the US Dollar struggles to lure buyers amid mixed signals regarding the state of diplomatic talks between the US and Iran. This could offer some support to the commodity as traders seem hesitant ahead of US consumer inflation figures.

Bitcoin hits lowest weekly close since August as short-term holders slip into losses

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Tuesday, after recording its lowest weekly close since August as selling pressure pushed recent buyers into losses.

US CPI data set to ease in October as markets reassess Fed rate hike expectations

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday, a release that could influence the US Dollar valuation as investors reassess the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. The report won’t include 12-month percentage changes for most CPI series in this release, due to missing October 2025 monthly data because of the lack of collection during the government shutdown from October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025.

Gold reclaimed $4,100. Tuesday’s CPI test decides if it holds
Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on a positive note, reclaiming the $4,100 psychological level as the US Dollar (USD) retreats from its recent highs. The precious metal recovers from Friday's losses, although investors remain cautious ahead of Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could determine the next direction for Bullion.