Indian Rupee: Range holds against US Dollar as RBI stays hawkish – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank strategists Dr. Henry Hao and Charlie Lay note that USD/INR rose slightly but continues to trade comfortably within the 94–97 range seen over the past six months. They highlight resilient Indian industrial production and a hawkish Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stance, while warning that elevated Oil prices remain a near-term headwind for the Indian Rupee (INR).

Rupee supported but Oil weighs

"September industrial production growth moderated to 6.7% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 7.2%) from a downwardly revised 7.8% in August. Manufacturing output growth eased to 7.6% from 8.6% previously, while electricity and gas production slowed to 11.2% from 12.3%."

"Overall, the September data suggest a moderation rather than a significant loss of industrial momentum. This is consistent with the October flash PMI which pointed to a continued expansion in manufacturing. The strength in capital and intermediate goods output points to sustained investment-related demand, although weaker consumer durables growth and subdued non-durables production suggest a less uniform recovery in household demand."

"The data remain broadly consistent with RBI’s FY2026-27 GDP growth forecast of 7.1%. The latest Bloomberg survey shows economists now expect the repo rate to reach 5.75% by end-2026 and 6.00% in Q1 2027, compared with a previous peak expectation of 5.75%. This implies a further 25bp hike by year-end and another in Q1 2027."

"USD/INR rose 0.1% to 95.23, remaining comfortably within the 94-97 range over the past six months. A hawkish RBI and resilient domestic growth remain supportive factors, but elevated oil prices are a key near-term headwind."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD edges higher above 0.7050 as hot CPI lifts RBA rate hike odds

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7055 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter inflation data bolsters expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes. The US September Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report will be in the spotlight later on Thursday.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 as USD stalls the post-FOMC corrective slide

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday, climbing back above 158.00 as the US Dollar reverses part of the post-FOMC pullback from a two-week high. Bulls, however, await key US macro data – the Advance Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index – before positioning for further gains. Focus will then shift to the crucial BoJ policy update on Friday amid firming expectations for a December rate hike.

Gold weakens further below $4,050 amid Fed rate hike bets and Iran risks

Gold sticks to intraday losses below the $4,050 level heading into the European session ,and for now seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to the weekly top set the previous day. The US Dollar attracts fresh buyers after Wednesday's post-FOMC corrective slide from a two-week high and is seen as a key factor weighing on the precious metal.

Pi Network risks another lower leg as the broader crypto market slips

Pi Network is trading in the red on Thursday, retreating toward a near-term support around $0.0740. The Fear and Greed Index declines to 43 on Thursday, while total liquidations exceed $350 million over the last 24 hours, suggesting a deterioration in investors' risk appetite and a sell-side bias. The technical outlook for PI is bearish, with selling pressure building.

European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates despite high inflation pressures

The European Central Bank concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday and will announce its decision at 13:15 GMT. The bank is widely expected to leave the interest rate on the Main Refinancing Operations and the Deposit Facility unchanged at 2.65% and 2.50%, respectively, after having raised both of them by 25 basis points in September.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.