IEA says world oil supply to fall by 3.9 million bpd in 2026
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world oil supply to fall by 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 assuming the oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, will gradually resume from June (prev. forecast 1.5 million bpd fall).
Additional projections
IEA sees total world oil supply 1.78 million bpd lower than demand in 2026 in monthly report (vs. 0.41 million bpd higher in previous report)
World oil demand falling by 420,000 bpd in 2026 on Iran war (prev. forecast 80,000 bpd drop).
Total global supply loss from Hormuz closure at 12.8 million bpd since February.
Global oil refinery runs are falling by 1.6 million bpd across 2026 on attacks, lower crude availability, and export restrictions.
War in the Middle East is depleting global oil inventories at a record pace, IEA says, after 246 million barrels drawn down in March-April.
Market reaction
No visible reaction by the WTI Oil price after the IEA projections' release. As of writing, the WTI Oil price is down almost 1% lower to near $97.50.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
