Australian Dollar: RBA policy path caps upside against US Dollar – Societe Generale

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights ongoing pressure on the Australian Dollar after the RBA removed one projected rate hike, keeping the cash rate at 4.35% and projecting the policy rate around 4.40% through 2028. The updated SMP and lower inflation forecasts dampen AUD/USD volatility, with technical focus on support near 0.6980 and resistance at 0.7120 and 0.7200/0.7275.

RBA stance caps upside for AUD

"More frustration for the AUD overnight and possibly in the weeks to come after the RBA removed one rate increase from its projections."

"Instead of peaking at 4.7% through June 2028, the policy rate is now estimated to stay on hold this year a 4.4% and through 2028 in the updated SMP, but with a topside bias of 10bp in 2027."

"The policy freeze until mid-2028 causes implied AUD/USD vol to slip top a 1-month low and tactically it cedes optimism for the currency to the dollar and the Yen (bond vigilantes, carry)."

"Technically, next objectives could be located at 0.7120 and June highs of 0.7200/0.7275."

"The 10y ACGB yield remains elevated near 5.0%, tracking the broader rise in developed market yields, resistance is situated at 5.10%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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FXStreet Insights Team

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