IEA raises 2025 global oil demand and supply growth forecast
In its monthly oil market report published on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lifted the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 737,000 barrels per day (b/d) from 685,000 b/d.”
Additional takeaways
Forecasts 2025 total demand to average 103.9 mln b/d.
IEA keeps 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast broadly steady at 698,000 b/d.
Global oil supply rose to 106.9 mln b/d in August.
OPEC+ supply rose by 80,000 b/d in August.
Non-OPEC+ supply fell by 70,000 b/d in August.
IEA raises 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.7 mln b/d from 2.5 mln b/d.
IEA forecasts 2026 total demand to average 104.6 mln b/d
IEA raises 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.1 mln b.d from 1.9 mln b/d.
Observed global oil stocks rose by 26.5 mln barrels in July
Sanctions on Iran, Russia have so far had modest impact on supplies, flows.
Market reaction
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
