Goldman roadmap: equities enter the earnings test as AI capex rewrites market leadership

Earnings have replaced valuation expansion as the main market engine, making the rally healthier but less forgiving.
AI capex is no longer just a Magnificent 7 story; it is spreading into industrials, capital goods, electrical equipment, defence, energy security and infrastructure.
Sticky long rates mean this is not a free-money equity cycle. Companies now need to earn their multiples the old-fashioned way.
Supply is rising, but Goldman still sees buybacks, M&A and strong corporate balance sheets as the demand cushion keeping the market intact.

Stephen Innes SPI Asset Management

Goldman roadmap

Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer has put a proper roadmap under what has otherwise looked like a deceptively simple equity rally. The easy version is that global stocks had a powerful first half. The more useful version is that the market has changed engines. The first leg was helped by valuation expansion, easing fears and the reflexive bid that follows any drop in macro anxiety. The next leg is harder. It is about earnings, capex, sector transmission, supply, buybacks, M&A and whether the AI infrastructure boom can keep feeding the broader equity machine without overheating the funding channel.

That is the core message in Goldman’s July 2026 Corporate Macroscope: A Macro Guide to the Micro World. The report argues that global equities delivered an exceptional first half despite geopolitical risk, oil volatility and concern over the growth-inflation mix. Asia led the move, Europe lagged modestly on price return but outperformed the US on total return, and most importantly, earnings growth explained a large part of the advance. In other words, this has become less of a pure multiple story and more of a profit story. That is healthier, but it is also less forgiving...

Author

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

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