Gold: Slight upside risk with fragile ceasefire – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report Gold has rebounded in choppy trade on a fragile US–Iran ceasefire and direct Israel–Lebanon talks. With US nominal and real yields falling and risk sentiment improving, the bank sees risks to Gold prices somewhat skewed to the upside. Key resistance is flagged around 4850, 4915 and 5023, with support at 4670 and 4250.

Ceasefire and yields support upside bias

"Gold rebounded in choppy trade, reflecting the fragile ceasefire deal between US and Iran as well as direct talks between Israel and Lebanon."

"While geopolitical headlines can swing both ways, there is some bias towards an improved risk sentiment, with most asset classes including equities, high-beta FX and gold trading in synchronous fashion."

"Overnight, both US nominal and real yields also fell and this can be supportive of gold prices."

"The next leg for gold from here depends on whether the ceasefire holds and whether lower oil prices revives room for dovish Fed repricing."

"Next resistance at 4850 levels (50% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4915 (50 DMA) and 5023 levels"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD meets support near 0.7150

AUD/USD comes under renewed and quite strong selling pressure ahead of the Asia opening bell on Friday, drifting back toward multi-day troughs near 0.7150, where it seems to have met some decent contention for now. The Aussie’s decline follows the inflation-reignited uptick in the Greenback in response to robust US factory-gate prices in August.

USD/JPY consolidates around 153.50 as bears turn cautious ahead of US inflation

USD/JPY stabilizes above 153.50 during the Asian session on Thursday, but remains near a seven-month low set earlier this week as hawkish BoJ repricing continues to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, rising September Fed rate-hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions help ease US Dollar selling pressure, offering some support to the currency pair ahead of US inflation figures.

Gold remains weak, retargets $4,350

Gold keeps the choppy price action on Thursday, now slipping back toward the $4,350 region per troy ounce amid the robust bounce in the US Dollar as well as rising US Treasury yields across the curve, particularly following US Producer Prices and ahead of Friday’s more relevant US CPI data.

Bitcoin holds steady on positive ETF flows despite short-term holders cashing in

Bitcoin's exchange-traded funds (ETF) demand regime has notably shifted, with 30-day net inflows reaching $21.9 billion, according to a Thursday post by CryptoQuant. The data suggests that the average Bitcoin held through spot ETFs is now in profit, with the realized price of the ETF cohort standing at roughly $72,000 to $73,000.

ECB recap: A hawkish hike despite downside growth risks

The European Central Bank (ECB) increased the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.50%, the Refinancing Rate to 2.65% and the Marginal Lending Facility to 2.90%, effective from September 16. The decision was accompanied by a clear warning that the outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks tilted to the upside for inflation and to the downside for growth.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.