Gold: Slight upside risk with fragile ceasefire – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report Gold has rebounded in choppy trade on a fragile US–Iran ceasefire and direct Israel–Lebanon talks. With US nominal and real yields falling and risk sentiment improving, the bank sees risks to Gold prices somewhat skewed to the upside. Key resistance is flagged around 4850, 4915 and 5023, with support at 4670 and 4250.

Ceasefire and yields support upside bias

"Gold rebounded in choppy trade, reflecting the fragile ceasefire deal between US and Iran as well as direct talks between Israel and Lebanon."

"While geopolitical headlines can swing both ways, there is some bias towards an improved risk sentiment, with most asset classes including equities, high-beta FX and gold trading in synchronous fashion."

"Overnight, both US nominal and real yields also fell and this can be supportive of gold prices."

"The next leg for gold from here depends on whether the ceasefire holds and whether lower oil prices revives room for dovish Fed repricing."

"Next resistance at 4850 levels (50% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4915 (50 DMA) and 5023 levels"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)