Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles to capitalize on intraday gains, remains below $1,960

Gold price builds on the overnight bounce from the $1,946-$1,945 area, or a multi-day low and gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The XAU/USD currently trades around the $1,957-$1,958 region, up just over 0.10% for the day, and remains well within the striking distance of a one-month peak touched last Friday.

The US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive near its lowest level since April 2022 in the wake of firming expectations that the Federal Resreve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle. In fact, market participants now seem convinced that the Fed will keep interest rates steady for the rest of this year after the highly-anticipated 25 basis points (bps) lift-off in July. This, in turn, continues to weigh on the Greenback, which is seen as a key factor lending some support to the US Dollar-denominated Gold price.

Investors, however, doubt that the Fed will commit to a more dovish policy stance, instead might stick to its forecast for a 50 bps rate hike this year. This helps limit the downside for the US Treasury bond yields and should act as a tailwind for the USD, capping any meaningful upside for the non-yielding Gold price. Apart from this, the overnight rally in the US equity markets might further hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets and contribute to keeping a lid on the safe-haven precious metal, at least for now.

Even from a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past four days points to indecision among traders over the near-term trajectory for the Gold price. This further makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the $1,963-$1,964 region, or the one-month peak before positioning for any further appreciating move. Traders now look to the US monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures for a fresh impetus later during the early North American session.

Technical levels to watch