Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains sideways around $4,050 during US NFP week

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains in a tight range at around $4,050 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal struggles to get direction, with investors awaiting the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released later this week.

US payrolls seen posting modest July gain as Deutsche Bank flags stable jobless rate

Economists at Deutsche Bank expect Friday’s US July payrolls report to show a modest acceleration in hiring, with “employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading.” They forecast “the Unemployment Rate… to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labour force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline.” On pay and hours, Deutsche Bank looks for “average hourly earnings… to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours.”

Investors will closely monitor the data, as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 63.6% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the September policy meeting.

Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will pay attention to the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

Strategists at Danske Bank highlight that “today's most interesting data release will be the US June JOLTs report,” noting that “job openings have shifted moderately higher this year, which has historically predicted rising wage pressures ahead.” This reinforces their broader view that strengthening US labor demand could translate into renewed upward pressure on wages as the cycle matures.

Gold technical analysis

XAU/USD trades flat at around $4,050.80, holding below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,072.96, which keeps the near-term bias bearish and the metal capped by immediate overhead supply.

The Relative Strength Index (14) remains inside the 40.00-60.00 range, hinting at consolidative price action rather than a decisive recovery.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,072.96; a daily close above this barrier would ease downside pressure and open the way for a stronger corrective bounce towards the July 22 high at around $4,166. On the downside, last week's low at $3,996.13 is the immediate support zone, followed by the June 30 low at $3,941.76.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)