Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains sideways around $4,050 during US NFP week

Gold price consolidates at around $4,050 ahead of the US NFP data on Friday.
The Fed is highly expected to hike interest rates in the September policy meeting.
Investors await the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains in a tight range at around $4,050 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal struggles to get direction, with investors awaiting the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released later this week.

US payrolls seen posting modest July gain as Deutsche Bank flags stable jobless rate

Economists at Deutsche Bank expect Friday’s US July payrolls report to show a modest acceleration in hiring, with “employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading.” They forecast “the Unemployment Rate… to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labour force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline.” On pay and hours, Deutsche Bank looks for “average hourly earnings… to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours.”

Investors will closely monitor the data, as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 63.6% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the September policy meeting.

Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will pay attention to the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

Strategists at Danske Bank highlight that “today's most interesting data release will be the US June JOLTs report,” noting that “job openings have shifted moderately higher this year, which has historically predicted rising wage pressures ahead.” This reinforces their broader view that strengthening US labor demand could translate into renewed upward pressure on wages as the cycle matures.

Gold technical analysis

XAU/USD trades flat at around $4,050.80, holding below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,072.96, which keeps the near-term bias bearish and the metal capped by immediate overhead supply.

The Relative Strength Index (14) remains inside the 40.00-60.00 range, hinting at consolidative price action rather than a decisive recovery.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,072.96; a daily close above this barrier would ease downside pressure and open the way for a stronger corrective bounce towards the July 22 high at around $4,166. On the downside, last week's low at $3,996.13 is the immediate support zone, followed by the June 30 low at $3,941.76.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator

JOLTS Job Openings

JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.

GBP/USD: Downward-sloping trendline near 1.3470 remains key barrier

The British pound faces selling pressure against its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3420 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Tuesday.

EUR/USD flatlines above 1.1500, awaits US jobs data

EUR/USD holds steady around 1.1505 in European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets remain cautious ahead of a slew of US jobs data, starting with the JOLTS Job Openings Survey later today. However, the downside appears capped by hot Eurozone inflation in July, bolstering the case for a European Central Bank rate hike at the next meeting.

Gold holds steady above $4,050; hawkish Fed bets favor bearish traders

Gold remains confined in a range below the $4,100 mark through the early European session as traders opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. Meanwhile, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar.

Aave: Bearish RSI divergence risks a 20% drop despite steady DeFi deposits

Aave (AAVE) extends a mild near-term recovery on Tuesday, holding above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $90.80. Aave protocol’s V3 deployment on Monad blockchain recorded over $500 million in deposits over the last month, reflecting increased user adoption.

US JOLTs report in focus

In the US, the June JOLTs report will be in the spotlight. Job openings have increased modestly this year, which has historically predicted rising wage cost pressures ahead. June trade balance data will also be released in the afternoon and the preliminary reading pointed towards a stable trade deficit from May. The Fed's Schmid (non-voter, hawk) will be on the wires overnight.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.