Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes further upside past $1,950 with inverse H&S in offing, softer US Dollar
- Gold Price picks up bids to refresh intraday high, prints three-day uptrend despite mild weekly gains.
- Bullish chart formation, downbeat US Dollar allow XAU/USD bulls to keep the reins during sluggish session.
- US Dollar moves, risk catalysts and mid-tier China data eyed for immediate directions.
Gold Price (XAU/USD) prints a three-day winning streak near $1,965 as the US Dollar remains depressed during early Wednesday. In doing so, the precious metal also cheers hopes of China’s more stimulus and the cautious optimism in the markets amid an absence of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers’ speeches due to the pre-FOMC blackout, as well as due to a light calendar.
That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses the previous day’s corrective bounce while taking offers around 104.00, down 0.10% on a day by the press time. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies suffers from downbeat market bets on the Fed’s next move.
“Fed funds futures traders see the Fed as likely to then resume rate increases, with a 65% chance of an at least 25 basis-point increase in July, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool," said Reuters late on Tuesday. It’s worth mentioning that the interest rate futures show a nearly 15% probability of a June rate hike. The reason could be linked to downbeat United States activity data released on Monday, as well as the previously dovish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Officials ahead of the pre-Fed blackout.
Elsewhere, recently firmer China PMIs and measures to ease credit conditions at home allow the Gold Price to grind higher, as Beijing is one of the world’s biggest Gold consumers.
It should be noted, however, that a light calendar and no major noises in the markets restrict the Gold Price moves. While portraying the mood, the 10-year coupons remain sluggish at around 3.69% whereas the two-year counterparts rose a bit to 4.50%. On the same line, the technology stocks remained firmer but the manufacturing ones weighed on the sentiment and pared Wall Street’s gains. Additionally, the S&P500 Futures print mild gains by the press time and allow the XAU/USD to remain firmer.
Looking ahead, China’s monthly trade numbers will join the risk catalysts and momentum in the bond market to direct the Gold Price.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
Gold Price portrays an inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) chart formation on the hourly play.
In addition to the bullish chart pattern, the XAU/USD’s sustained trading beyond the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA), currently around $1,956, also keeps the buyers hopeful.
Furthermore, the upbeat prints of the RSI (14) line, not overbought, also underpins the bullish bias surrounding the Gold price.
With this, the XAU/USD is well-set to prod the aforementioned inverse H&S’s neckline, around $1,983 at the latest. However, further upside hinges on how well the Gold Price remains firmer past the $2,000 threshold, following its sustained break of the $1,983 hurdle.
On the contrary, a clear break of the 200-HMA support of near $1,956 could quickly drag the Gold Price towards the previous monthly low of near $1,932 marked in the last week. That said, the XAU/USD’s downside past $1,932 won’t hesitate to prod the $1,900 round figure.
Overall, the Gold Price is likely to remain firmer but the upside room seems limited.
Gold Price: Hourly chart
Trend: Further upside expected
Author
Anil Panchal
FXStreet
Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.
