Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD around $4,660, bears sharpening their claws

XAU/USD Current price: $4,650

• Middle East crisis maintains financial markets in risk-averse mode.
• The March US ISM Services PMI painted a gloomy picture when reading between lines.
• XAU/USD under sellers' control despite holding within familiar levels.

Spot Gold consolidates at around $4,660 on Monday, little changed on a daily basis, yet lower compared to Friday’s close. Financial markets are all about sentiment at the beginning of the week, with the mood swinging at the rhythm of Iran war headlines.

The mood fluctuates, with headlines sometimes sparking hope and others sparking disbelief. A quick resolution to the Middle East crisis, however, seems unlikely as United States (US) President Donald Trump reiterated that the Tuesday deadline is final, adding that the latest Iran proposal is not “good enough.”

The US Dollar (USD) once again took advantage of a risk-averse environment, only temporarily falling after the release of American data. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the March Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 54, following 56.1 in February and missing expectations of 55.

The report also showed that the Prices Paid Index edged higher to 70.7 from 63 in the same period, reflecting mounting inflationary pressures. Also, the Employment Index fell to 45.2 from 51.8 previously, indicating a softening labor market.

The ISM Services PMI report painted a gloomy picture for the American economy in March. Still, US indexes retain modest intraday gains, preventing panic from taking over and pushing the Greenback sharply up across the FX board.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the near-term picture for XAU/USD is mildly bearish. The 4-hour chart shows that price retreats further from the recent $4,780 area and now holds below the rising 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $4,686, signaling fading upside momentum within a still-elevated range. The longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs are also clustered above the current level near $4,673 and $4,916, respectively, and continue to slope lower, reflecting sellers' control. Finally, the Momentum indicator has slipped into negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back toward the 50 line, together indicating that buying pressure has cooled and that sellers are attempting to gain short-term control.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD posted a lower low and a lower high, a sign of mounting selling interest. The bias is mildly bearish as price extends its pullback below the 20-day SMA near $4,755 while hovering around a rising 100- day SMA. Meanwhile, the Momentum remains well below 0 and continues to weaken, in line with bears' control, while the RSI hovers just below 45 after recovering from oversold territory, suggesting downside momentum is fading but not yet reversing decisively in favor of buyers.

Immediate resistance emerges at the near-term 20-period SMA near $4,686, with a sustained break above that level needed to reopen the path toward the recent high at $4,787. A push through $4,787 would expose the $4,820 zone next, where previous supply could reassert. On the downside, initial support aligns with the recent reaction low at $4,610, followed by $4,580 as the next bearish target if weakness extends. A decisive drop below $4,580 would strengthen the bearish tone and could invite a deeper pullback toward $4,550.

, following 56.1 in February and missing expectations of(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)