|

Gold price loses its recovery momentum amid renewed US Dollar demand

  • Gold price trades on a weaker note on Tuesday amid the rebound in the USD. 
  • The hope for Fed rate cuts, rising geopolitical risks, and strong gold demand might cap the yellow metal’s downside.  
  • Investors await Fed’s Waller, Williams, Barr, Bostic, Collins, and Mester speeches later on Tuesday. 

For the latest news on Gold click here.

Gold price (XAU/USD) loses traction on Tuesday after reaching a record high earlier. The lack of fresh catalysts in a quiet session in terms of top-tier economic data might limit the precious metal’s upside. Nonetheless, the renewed demand by higher bets on interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the strong demand stemming from central banks and Asian buyers might provide some support to the yellow metal.

Gold traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak, with the Fed’s Waller, Williams, Barr, Bostic, Collins, and Mester scheduled to speak later on Tuesday. The FOMC Minutes will be the highlight on Wednesday. Furthermore, the hawkish stance from Fed officials is likely to lift the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated Gold lower. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price struggles to gain ground amid the USD recovery

  • Gold reached a record high on Monday at $2,450, and silver prices moved toward 12-year highs. Gold has risen 18% this year, while silver has gained 35%. 
  • Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr said that the central bank “will need to allow our restrictive policy some further time to continue to do its work.” 
  • Fed policymaker Philip Jefferson, another permanent voting member of the Fed's rate-setting committee, said inflation was still easing, although nowhere near as quickly as he expected. 
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that policy is restrictive and that it would take a while before the central bank gains confidence that inflation is headed to 2%. 
  • Investors see a 76% odd of rate cut from the Fed by 25 basis points (bps) in September and two cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.  

Technical Analysis: Gold price’s constructive outlook remains intact

Gold price posts edges lower on the day. According to the four-hour timeframe, the yellow metal keeps the positive stance unchanged as it holds above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with an upward slope. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands in the bullish zone around 69.00, suggesting the support level is likely to hold rather than break. 

Any follow-through buying could make another attempt at breaking above an all-time high of $2,450. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the $2,500 psychological mark.

On the other hand, the resistance-turned support level of $2,420 acts as an initial support level for XAU/USD. The additional downside filter to watch is the $2,400 round number. The key contention level will emerge at the 100-period EMA at $2,355.  

US Dollar price this week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Pound Sterling.

 USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHF
USD 0.15%-0.04%0.19%0.63%0.36%0.58%0.15%
EUR-0.15% -0.18%0.05%0.51%0.24%0.44%0.02%
GBP0.03%0.17% 0.23%0.67%0.41%0.61%0.19%
CAD-0.19%-0.05%-0.21% 0.45%0.18%0.39%-0.04%
AUD-0.64%-0.50%-0.68%-0.45% -0.27%-0.04%-0.49%
JPY-0.37%-0.23%-0.42%-0.19%0.26% 0.20%-0.22%
NZD-0.58%-0.44%-0.62%-0.39%0.06%-0.22% -0.43%
CHF-0.16%-0.01%-0.19%0.04%0.49%0.22%0.43% 

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

Interest rates FAQs

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

More from Lallalit Srijandorn
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD hangs near three-week low, below 0.6950 as traders await US NFP report

AUD/USD hits a three-week low during the Asian session on Friday as the RBA’s dovish shift and a rout in equity markets weigh on the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, the recent slump in US bond yields to a two-month low keeps US Dollar bulls on the back foot and limits losses for the currency pair as traders look to the US NFP report for a fresh impetus.

USD/JPY bounces off three-week low; keeps the red near 157.65 as focus remains on US NFP

USD/JPY bounces off the weekly low set during the Asian session, as bears turn cautious ahead of the US NFP report due later this Friday. The upside seems limited as the recent slump in US bond yields and hopes of Iran war de-escalation undermine the US Dollar. Moreover, a hawkish BoJ and intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, capping the pair.

Gold pares intraday losses; down a little below $4,100 as focus remains on US NFP

Gold recovers most of its early intraday losses, trading with a mild negative bias near $4,070-$4,075. The US Dollar extends Thursday's recovery from its lowest level since late September, exerting some downward pressure on the commodity. Furthermore, a hawkish US Federal Reserve contributes to the precious metal pullback from a two-week high, which it touched the previous day. Bearish traders, however, seem hesitant ahead of the release of US monthly employment details, which should provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal.

Democrats win House and Senate in US midterms: Why isn’t all bad news for crypto

The biggest story this week was Tuesday’s US midterm elections, which saw Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in a clear blue wave. This political shift in the US has triggered sharp price swings across the cryptocurrency market.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to pick up in October

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release October Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The report is expected to show an increase of 65K jobs, up from 29K in the previous month.

US Dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress
The US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.5% to trade near 101.35 after sliding below the 101.50 level. The Greenback retreats to its lowest level in four weeks as investors reassess the political and economic outlook following the Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the United States (US) midterm elections.