|

Global macro: Growth resilience and policy risks – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage emphasizes that, despite improved risk sentiment from geopolitical de-escalation, investors remain focused on central bank policy and global growth resilience. Markets are assessing ECB tightening, upcoming Fed and BoJ decisions and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates. China’s outlook is supported by external demand and stable ratings, yet equity outflows and defensive bond buying signal lingering caution.

Balancing optimism and caution

"Despite the positive geopolitical backdrop, investors remain focused on central bank policy, global growth trends and whether improving sentiment can overcome persistent concerns around inflation, rates and capital flows."

"Markets are continuing to assess the implications of ECB tightening, the upcoming Fed and BoJ decisions and the risk of higher-for-longer global interest rates."

"While China’s outlook remains supported by external demand and stable ratings, continued equity outflows and defensive bond buying highlight lingering concerns over global growth and market durability."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD advaces beyond 1.3450 after BoE decision, US Q2 GDP

GBP/USD gains positive momentum on Thursday, surpassing 1.3450 and trading at fresh multi-week highs. The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%. The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, with the 3 dissenters favoring a rate hike. US Q2 GDP missing expectations helped the pair advance, while renewed US Dollar weakness across the FX board pushed the pair further up ahead of the monthly close.

EUR/USD confortable around 1.1530, highest in six weeks

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1530 in the American session on Thursday, reaching fresh six-week highs. The US Dollar is in sell-off mode, with multiple factors weighing on the American currency. Not only did the Federal Reserve vote divided to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, creating doubts about a September hike, but US Q2 GDP missed expectations. A suspected JPY intervention adds pressure on the Greenback.

Gold trades below $4,100 amid rebounding USD; downside seems cushioned

Gold struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days and trades with a mild negative bias just below $4,100 during the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar recovers slightly from its lowest level since June 17 amid a further escalation of US-Iran tensions, acting as a headwind for the bullion. Meanwhile, signs of cooling US inflation temper Fed rate hike bets, capping the USD and supporting the non-yielding yellow metal.

Bank of Japan set to keep interest rates unchanged after suspected Yen intervention

Investors are turning their attention to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy announcement on Friday, after the Japanese Yen staged a dramatic rebound during Thursday's American session. The move came amid growing speculation that Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market after USD/JPY tumbled from above 163.00 to below 158.00 within minutes.

Aave to sunset Sonic, Aptos, zkSync, Scroll reserves, affecting $98 million in supply

Aave is planning to sunset 75 low-activity reserves across its decentralized finance protocol as part of a broader effort to reduce operational, technical and economic risks across its network of deployments.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.